Louisville Basketball: KenPom’s take on round 2 with North Carolina

Louisville basketball has been red hot since they smacked Carolina on their own floor three weeks ago. Can the Cards control the Heels again?

It was 10:47pm on January 9, 2019. The Louisville basketball program had just been handed a deflating overtime loss at Pittsburgh.

The Cards were now 1-1 in ACC play with a game against 12th ranked Carolina just three days away. Louisville twitter was in disaster mode. Chris Mack’s coaching ability was called in to question (not sure why) and even some took this game to solidify their “feelings” that this group of Cards would not make the Big Dance.

I was fed up. Done with the dumb jumping to conclusions and simply refused to let one road loss ruin my confidence in both Chris Mack and this group of men in red and black.

And that’s when I tweeted probably the most accurate/well-timed statement of my Cards lifetime.

Louisville Twitter: Selection Sunday is March 17th not January 13th. Slow the heck down. @TheBigRedLouie
— Nick Conner (@nickdaconner) January 10, 2019

Slowing the heck down was a lot to ask for most fans…until Saturday. Three days later the Cards dominated North Carolina on both ends of the floor, controlled the glass, kept the Heels out of success in transition, and shot lights out en route to a twenty-one point win in the Dean Dome. Not only did the Cards steady the ship they upgraded to a yacht. The Cards have rattled off six straight wins (including UNC) and now co-lead the ACC at an impressive 7-1.

Now the calendar has turned and the schedule gets much, much tougher for Louisville. The Cards are sitting pretty almost halfway through their conference slate, but another win over Carolina would give the Cards the inside track to competing for the regular season conference title and once again bolster their resume as we get closer to Selection Sunday–not January 13th, but March 17th.

With Round 2 in the ‘Ville, Muhammad Ali-themed unis on, and a confident group of men: what’s it going to take for Louisville to beat Carolina again? Let’s take a look at what KenPom thinks of this matchup a second time around and what could be the statistical keys to another big win for the Cards.

Offensive similarities

Both North Carolina and Louisville’s offensive stats and overall adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom are eerily similar. Carolina is currently the 12th rated offense while Louisville is 13th. The similarities don’t stop there though. Below are the key offensive stats for both sides:

Louisville

Effective FG%: 53.4
Turnover %: 17.6
3P%: 35.7
2P% 53.2

North Carolina

Effective FG%: 53.9
Turnover %: 18.4
3P%: 37.9
2P%: 52.2

Simply put the Cards and Heels both shoot similar percentages inside the paint and beyond the arc and turn the ball over at a similar rate. Louisville’s success in Chapel Hill and on their six-game winning streak has been from working inside-out. Consistent attacking of the hoop and of several big men in the lane (Enoch and Williams) creates open looks outside for guys like Nwora and Sutton. Louisville must not shy away from what worked offensively just three weeks ago.

Offensive disparities

North Carolina has historically controlled the glass on both ends and looked to push the pace and win in transition. While this collection of Tar Heels may not be as dominant in these areas as teams of the past, this group still relies on these areas for overall offensive success. North Carolina has the 5th fasted adjusted tempo of any team in the country this season and grabs offensive rebounds at a staggering percentage of 34.7. In round 1, Louisville forced Carolina stud Coby White into early foul trouble and kept Carolina from pushing the pace and controlling the glass–mainly because Louisville made shots at a high rate. Sounds simple right? If Louisville is going to win again on Saturday they will need to once again knockdown open looks, which will in turn slow down the tempo of the Tar Heels.

Defensive keys

North Carolina has the higher rated defense at 13th to Louisville’s 24th. The Heels hold opponents to 48% shooting and force their opponents to turn the ball over 20% of the time. In comparison the Louisville defense holds opponents to 47.2% shooting and turns their opponents over at a rate of 18.2%. The Cards hot shooting allowed them to overcome 14 turnovers in the first matchup, but don’t expect the Cards to have similar success if they do not value the ball on their end on Saturday. The North Carolina defense had a woeful showing in Chapel Hill and I fully expect them to be more than ready to get the nightmares from the ensuing film session out of their heads this time around.

North Carolina wins if…

The Tar Heels will win if they control the glass, push the tempo, keep Jordan Nwora in check, and get Louisville big men in early foul trouble or simply prevent them from renting space in the paint. UNC thrives off of good play from Coby White and after a horrid showing three weeks ago look for the Freshman to be locked in on Saturday.

Louisville wins if…

The Cards will win if they do exactly what they did in Chapel Hill–sounds simple! Louisville must run efficient offensive that starts with going inside to Enoch and Williams and creates lanes for driving by CC and Sutton, and open outside looks for Nwora and McMahon. The Cards must keep it close on the glass, slow down the Heels tempo whenever possible, and keep Coby White in check again. Also the fire unis and raucous crowd will go a long way for another Louisville win.

KenPom Game Prediction: Louisville 79 – North Carolina 77

Louisville over UNC 79-77 with 55% confidence in a Louisville win. KenPom likes the Cards to pull out a close one at home and complete the season sweep of the Tar Heels.

Can Louisville complete the season sweep? Can Louisville shoot that well again against the Heels? Tune in tomorrow at 2pm on ESPN and let’s find out together. Go Cards!