Louisville basketball roundtable: How far can the Cards go?

We have officially entered into postseason play and it’s time to get the crew together again to talk about Louisville basketball’s chances of success in the ACC & NCAA Tournaments.

Well, here we are. With 31 games in the books for Louisville basketball and a season full of ups and downs, we’ve officially gotten to the point where one bad game can send you home for the season.

Sitting at 0-0 the Cards will get ACC Tournament play underway for the first time in the Chris Mack era on Wednesday against either Notre Dame or Georgia Tech, after having a bye during the first round. Even with all of the struggles that have taken place over the last several weeks with the Cards losing six of their final eight games of the season, four of those to teams in the top 25, Chris Mack and his team are optimistic about their new fresh start.

Previewing the ACC Tournament with the media, Chris Mack said:

"“How I look at the tournament is an opportunity to win a championship. t’s nice to know that the experts feel like we’ve done enough not to worry about the second tournament, that not necessarily being a weight on our shoulders heading in, but this is a great opportunity for our team and I’m excited to see how we play.”"

After struggling in late game situations and blowing leads in five of their final eight games, the team isn’t going to let that stop them from starting fresh and preparing for success. Ryan McMahon said:

"“The fun time of the year is right around the corner so there’s nothing to hang our heads over,” McMahon said. “It’s almost like a new season, almost like a fresh start.”"

With the new season upon us and the regular season in the past it’s the perfect time to get some of the team from Big Red Louie and talk about the postseason and expectations for Louisville.

Let’s dive in.

If the Cards advance past Notre Dame/Georgia Tech they will get another chance to take down UNC, arguably the hottest team in the country. What is the biggest factor in the Cards pulling off the upset (again) ?

Ross Prophater: To beat ‘Ole’ Roy Williams and his Tar Heels, it always comes down to 2 Things:

-Beating the Tar Heels on the glass.

-Keeping them out of transition.

If the Cards can do work and convert on the offensive glass, it’ll keep the Tar Heels from being able to get out in transition. Effectively limiting what those “daggum” Tar Heels like to do best.

Jacob Lane: Louisville definitely has to own the glass, which they’ve shown this season on multiple occasions they are capable of doing, but the bigger factor is taking away transition; starting with Coby White. The freshman guard has been incredible the last three weeks averaging 21 points per game over his last five. If he is able to dictate the pace of the game, Louisville doesn’t have the horses necessary to win the race.

Tanner Hickman: The biggest factor will be slowing down freshman point guard Coby White. In the win at Chapel Hill, White was non existent. During the final weeks of the regular season, White has played the best basketball of his career in a Carolina uniform, and may have played himself into the lottery in the upcoming draft. The Cards would have their hands full if White is able to continue his outstanding late season play, so slowing him down is a major factor.

DJ Bien-Aime: Jordan Nwora would need a big game because he is the best player on the team. When you’re trying to pull off an upset your best player has to lead you. Louisville would have to sink a bunch of threes while not turning the ball over and executing in the clutch.

If Louisville gets past UNC and makes a run in the ACC Tournament, it’ll be because they ________ ?

RP: …Limited turnovers. The Cards down this final stretch against the best the ACC has to offer hasn’t proven they can consistently take care of the ball. In order for them to have a chance to make a run, they’ll have to limit their opponents ability to get points off of turnovers.

JL: …Took care of the ball when the pressure was on to put away a game. In losses to Pittsburgh, Florida State, and Duke (three of the most heartbreaking losses) the Cards had 18,23, and 27 turnover. In wins, they never committed more than 15 turnovers. That’s a huge difference. If they have any chance of taking care of a run-first UNC team and the likes of Florida State/Duke/Virginia in the next two rounds, they have to value each possession.

TH: …Finally put a full 40 minutes of executing their game plan, together. During the month of February, the Cards were the best 35 minute team in college basketball. Louisville comes out with great game plans and executes them nicely for the first 30 minutes of the game, but in the last 10 minutes or so of each game, they shy away from what worked and become a completely different team. Making the right plays down the stretch and showing poise in crunch time will be the reason Louisville is able to make a run in the post season.

DB: …Got hot from three, Jordan Nwora plays like a top 10 NBA draft pick, and UNC plays a bad overall game. It would have to be similar to how the game went in Chapel Hill.

Can the Cards win the ACC Tournament? Why or why not?

RP: I just don’t think so. I don’t see the Cards being able to win 3 games in consecutive days against what will likely be any combination of North Carolina, Duke/Syracuse, Virginia/Florida State. It’s just too big a demand for this Cards team in my opinion.

JL: No, plain and simple, no. As much as I believe in Chris Mack and what his system can do against good teams, I just haven’t seen enough over the last month to make me believe the Cards can win four games in four days. Can they win two or three games, yes. But to ask for them to beat ND/GT, UNC, and then a combination of Duke, Florida State, Syracuse, or Virginia is just way too much.

TH:  I think the Cards most certainly can. It’s all about finishing. They have either won or lost a close game to their potential matchups in their path to the ACC Championship (providing Duke doesn’t lose to Syracuse if Louisville were to beat UNC). I’m sure after the rough February the Cards have had, Coach Mack will hammer home the idea that the team gets a clean slate and that it’s a “new season.” For the Cards to make a run, they have to learn how to close out these close games.

DB: Can they win the ACC tournament? Technically they could. Will the Cardinals win? Absolutely not. The Cardinals don’t have the talent and depth to win the ACC tournament. They have one all ACC player and their coaching staff isn’t in the same realm as Duke, UNC, and UVA as of right now. Chris Mack inexperience in the ACC will have a negative factor towards winning the ACC tournament.

Projections have Louisville almost locked in as a 7 seed, barring a deep run into the ACC Tournament, that’ll likely stay the case. Can Louisville make a run to the Sweet 16?

RP: Oh for sure. They definitely could make a Sweet 16 run. They need a draw that gives them a couple of good matchups and they need to shoot well and limit turnovers, but it’s certainly possible.

JL: It’s going to all depend on matchups, which I know is a cliche answer. If they draw a team that pressures the ball with long, athletic guards & wings in the first round or round of 32, it could be a serious problem. However, if they draw a team like Utah State in the first round and then maybe get a distracted LSU in the round of 32, then we’re talking business. This Louisville team is talented enough to beat anybody on any given night, but as we’ve seen the last month and a half, a matchup nightmare could play spoiler early.

TH: Absolutely they can. One reason being is that they won’t have to face one of the best teams in the country for each round of the tournament like they have been on almost a weekly basis in the ACC, especially during February. If they focus on each game without looking ahead to the next round, Louisville can find themselves in the second weekend of the tournament.

DB: If Louisville plays how they played against Virginia they can. The caliber of seeds on the 10/11 line wouldn’t be anywhere near as good as the top teams in the ACC. Louisville has shown they can play with the best of the best.

Which 10 or 11 seed (projected at this point) do you want to avoid at all costs? What 2 seed would you most want to face?

RP: I have 2 teams on that 10/11 line I absolutely do not want to face; Murray St. and Seton Hall. I want no part of Ja Morant and the Racers and absolutely do not want a potential revenge game against Seton Hall after Louisville won a tough road game in their house.

As far as the 2 seed I’d like to see most? Give me LSU with all that turmoil going on. Been there done that. Welcome to the party Bayou Bengals.

JL: Murray State, Murray State, Murray State. I want no part of watching Christen Cunningham, Khwan Fore, and anyone else on Louisville’s team trying to shut down Ja Morant and Shaq Bucahanan. The two are electric together and are a huge reason why Murray State is going to be trendy pick to make a run. Murray State is capable of getting up and down against some of the best teams in the country and they legitimately present nightmare matchups all across the board. Plus, we all remember the last time Louisville faced a Kentucky-based team with a future first rounder on the squad.

TH: I would not want to face Utah State. They appear to be a team that can catch fire in the tournament especially after beating Nevada. They have a freshman center, Neemias Queta, who is averaging close to a double-double. I would most likely want to face Tennessee (providing they wouldn’t play in the Louisville region). They have been an up and down team as of late losing their final game to Auburn. I think Louisville has the game plan to beat them, it’s just about executing for the full 40 minutes.

DB: The 11 seeds are scarier to me than the projected 10 seeds. Florida and St. John’s would be difficult matchups. The projected two seeds are LSU, Michigan State, Duke, and Tennessee. There isn’t a single 2 projected 2 seed that I would want to face. Not one, but if I had to choose it would be LSU for off the court factors.

Where does Louisville see their season come to an end?

RP: I’m still going to say we can make a Sweet 16 run, but I don’t see the team being able to capture the magic needed to make a run any deeper than that. After the first weekend is where most of the fireworks and upsets usually stop and it’s not a coincidence the best teams in the tournament often have the best luck. I just don’t think the Cards are that team this year.

JL: My heart really wants to believe that this Louisville team can get all of their demons out of the way and put together solid back-to-back performances in the first round and round of 32. However, I’m realistic. This team has been amazing to watch all season long, good or bad, and while I’m not ready for it to end, I really think it’s more likely that they win a game and then get knocked out by a 2 or 3 seed (depending on where they end up being placed). In my books, one tournament win is a huge success for Coach Mack.

TH: I think the cards make it to the Sweet 16 before missing a chance to advance to the Elite 8.

DB: Round of 32. I thought the season was dead in the water after Boston college, but UVA showed me enough to believe Louisville can beat a 2 seed. However, I don’t see that happening because those teams have more talent and better coaching.

Who’s your projection for the Postseason MVP (ACC Tournament & NCAA Tournament) ?

RP: Seeing as how I think the Cards postseason success relies upon limiting turnovers, that puts a lot of responsibility in the hands of PG Christen Cunningham. It’s been a pleasure watching him lead the Cards and for him this is it. I think he’ll go down playing his best basketball of the season; laying it all out there like Chris Mack demands,  leaving behind a memorable Cardinal legacy.

JL: For me March is all about teams best player stepping into their greatness on the biggest stage of them all. That is why I really believe Jordan Nwora is going to string together some jaw dropping performances. Whether it’s a 30 point  game, or a 25 point, 10 rebounds performance, or maybe even a buzzer beater; when it’s all said and done, we’ll look back and be reminded of just how special Jordan Nwora is.

TH: I think for the ACC tournament it’s Christen Cunningham. This will be his first time playing in a power 5 conference tournament and there are usually more eyeballs on the sport these next couple of weeks. I think he’ll take that to fuel him to showcase what he can do. For the NCAA tournament, I think the MVP will go to Jordan. Louisville will more than likely face teams that they haven’t seen all year, so I think teams are going to get a heavy dose of the Nwora experience during this tournament.

DB: Jordan Nwora, he has a potential NBA lottery ticket on the line and doesn’t shy from big games. I fully expect his play to raise to a possible 20 points per game average during postseason.