Louisville football: 5 burning questions for Cards vs. Mississippi State

Can Louisville take advantage of Mississippi State’s inability to stop big plays?

As I mentioned before, our own Presley Meyer did a great job of laying out the good and bad of the Mississippi State matchup.

One thing to not like was the rushing attack of Mississippi State, which should really challenge what has been a bad defense. However, as much as you probably don’t like the thought of Louisville being able to stop a high-powered rushing attack, there are reasons to be optimistic that the Cards can still win.

The biggest being Mississippi State’s inability to stop explosive plays down the field, something Louisville thrived at this season. As BRL friend and Card Chronicle Deputy Editor, Keith Wynne, pointed out – the Bulldog defense gave up a ton of plays over 10-plus yards this season.

In fact, against P5 teams (they played nine total this season) Mississippi State gave up 38 passing plays for 15-plus yards and 19 plays of 15 or more yards on the ground. They allowed teams to average 6.2 yards per play, which should bode well for the dynamic offense of Louisville which averaged over 442 yards per game and nearly seven yards per play. That was with their star cornerback Cameron Dantzler on the field, a luxury they won’t have against Louisville due to the junior declaring for the NFL Draft and skipping the team’s bowl game.

For Louisville, they are an offense built on big plays in both the run and passing game. In the most surprising thing you’ll hear today, quarterback Micale Cunningham led the nation (yes, the NATION) in passing plays of 70 yards or more, 80 yards or more, and 90 yards or more while finishing third in plays of 60 yards or more (Stat courtesy of Eric Crawford). Running back Javian Hawkins finished the season ranked 31st in the nation in yards per play averaging 5.89 ypp while leading the nation in runs of 20 yards or more and 40 yards or more.

That bodes extremely well for Louisville.

A lot will depend on the ability to handle the size, depth, and physicality of the Mississippi State team. We saw against teams like Kentucky, Florida State, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Miami how the Cards struggled to not only protect the quarterback and keep defenders from creating tackles for loss, but also to get anything that qualified as a big play.

If they can take advantage of Mississippi State’s struggling defense and keep the big play momentum that we saw all the way up until Kentucky, there’s a good chance the Cards walk out of Nashville 2-0 on the season.