Louisville basketball: 3 biggest questions for recruiting in 2021

How will the NCAA punishment impact the class?

The impact of the NCAA Notice of Allegations and impending punishment has been a theme throughout the first two questions for Chris Mack and Louisville basketball program, but it would be silly of me to not address it moving forward.

In fact, this NCAA’s dark cloud over Louisville will easily be the single most important storyline of the 2021 recruiting cycle and could even extend into 2022. The NCAA Tournament while a fairly exclusive event in terms of total teams, is a huge part of any program’s recruiting pitch and without it or at least the inability to work on getting there, getting recruits to join your program isn’t easy.

Listen to the Big Red Louie Podcast: Putting the NO in N.O.A.

So what will the impact be?

At this point it’s way too early to tell, considering Louisville has yet to officially announce they’ve returned a rebuttal to the NCAA (although we do have a timeline), and from there it will be another 60-ish days before we get the final punishment announcement from the NCAA. That means until that official announcement is made, Louisville’s stuck in between a rock and a hard place.

There are plenty of reasons why recruits love Louisville, but when so many other schools aren’t impacted by a tournament ban it’s near impossible to convince your top targets to still enroll at your university when that big piece of the puzzle won’t be there. Why got to Louisville and miss the postseason when you can play at other prominent, winning schools?

Whether or not it’s tied to the potential NCAA punishment/investigation is unknown, but Mack has already started to identify talent that falls the normal recruiting line for Louisville and extend scholarships. Finding lower-ranked “hidden gems” who may be under-recruited for a number of different reasons or even boom/bust type players are what could help the Cards stay competitive in the ACC and put them in a spot to quickly bounce back after the punishment has been served.

You may be asking yourself (or slamming your fists on your desk in frustration) why are we assuming that Louisville gets punished? Oklahoma State’s tournament ban stemming from the 2017 FBI Investigation isn’t a good look and it’s why I believe the Cards are headed for at least a one-year absence from the Big Dance.

Maybe the NCAA will follow the Seth Greenberg approach and punish the responsible parties who are still in college basketball or the program, not the players, giving Louisville a stiff recruiting penalty or something of that nature. Both President Neeli Bendapudi and Athletic’s Director Vince Tyra have both said they plan to fight the NCAA on the counts they don’t believe they should be punished for, mostly relying on the argument that they’ve completely cleaned house. Maybe the NCAA will soften the blow with a new head coach and no remaining players on the roster, and if that’s the case this was all for nothing.

However, I think very few people believe that will be the case and because of it recruiting is going be in flux. Mack is more than capable of building strong relationships with players and using that to push the narrative “it’s only temporary,” referring to the tournament ban – but how willing are recruits to be patient in a “what have you done for me lately?” world?

If the top players say no to Louisville that means there will have to be a major pivot in recruiting strategy, changing from targeting players who are able to play now and are capable of being star players right away (or at least in two seasons) to finding the guys who have slipped through who are capable of developing into high-level college basketball players and finding a healthy mix of transfers & graduate-transfers in the short term to bridge the gap.