With all of the hype and excitement surrounding the season opener two weeks ago, many national observers may have thought the Ole Miss game was the biggest game on Louisville’s schedule this year, but that isn’t true. It may only be Week 3 of the college football season, but this is Louisville's biggest game of the year. The Cardinals enter Saturday’s pivotal game as 1.5-point favorites in the 3:30 PM time slot on ESPN2.
Louisville football has everything to gain in massive SMU showdown this weekend
After losing on a last-second field goal to Ole Miss in Nashville in prime time on opening weekend, Louisville handled business in its home opener last Friday night in a nationally televised game. This week’s ESPN2 matchup marks the third straight week that Louisville will have a national audience, and this game should live up to the standard. The Top 25 matchup not only has ACC implications, but could eventually become a “knockout” game for the loser when it comes to a College Football Playoff spot as well.
With both SMU and Louisville being in the ACC, this game is essentially worth a game and a half in the standings. The winner not only gets a leg up in the ACC standings, but also would own the tiebreaker if the two teams end up with identical conference records at the end of the season. For two teams that had the same preseason odds to win the ACC Championship (+750), this could end up being a conference “semi-final” if the winner goes on to take care of business with the rest of its conference schedule.
While all things are not necessarily equal when it comes to their conference schedules, Louisville has more room for error if it does not end up on the winning side this weekend. The Cards could lose this matchup against SMU and go on to win the rest of their ACC games, as they will be favored in every one. SMU, on the other hand, would have a much harder time recovering, with tough games against No. 25 Virginia and what looks like a good Virginia Tech team still on the schedule.
The atmosphere should feel like a playoff game, even if it is just Week 3. For Louisville to make a statement and announce its CFP bid, the Cardinals will need to take care of business at home. Here are three clear reasons Louisville should win on Saturday.
1. Take Advantage of SMU’s Mistakes
So far through two games, SMU has been anything but perfect. The Mustangs have made countless mistakes when it comes to flags, turnovers and simply hurting themselves. This was very evident in their Week 1 victory against Florida State, where they had four turnovers, six flags and even a missed field goal. Despite winning the game, they made it far more challenging on themselves than it needed to be. Even in their Week 2 victory against UC Davis, where they won 56-10, they had six flags again, a missed field goal attempt and a fumble that they were able to recover.
Through two games, SMU has been sloppy and careless at times. The 12 flags helped stall promising drives and, especially in the FSU game, allowed the Seminoles to hang around and keep the game closer than it should have been. The turnovers could be a key difference-maker in this week’s game, and the Mustangs seem to be vulnerable in that area.
Against Ole Miss in their season opener, Louisville was able to force two turnovers against a Heisman candidate quarterback. The problem is that the Cardinals scored zero points off of those turnovers, and that was probably the difference between winning and losing that game.
When teams make mistakes and turn the ball over, good teams make them pay for it. Louisville will need to capitalize on any breaks it gets against a good SMU team, whether it be an empty drive, a penalty that benefits the Cards or, especially, scoring off of turnovers. If Louisville can take advantage of these kinds of mistakes by the Mustangs, the Cardinals will have an advantage in what should be a close game.
2. Running Attack
SMU has yet to prove that it can really defend the run. Against Florida State, the Mustangs allowed 199 total rushing yards. The bulk of that came from the Seminoles’ top two running backs, who combined for 187 yards on 38 attempts. That is an average of almost 5 yards per carry by a team that many have projected to finish at the bottom of the ACC again this year.
In their cupcake game against UC Davis, the Mustangs allowed the Aggies to average 4.4 yards per carry despite the score being out of hand early. They currently rank 82nd in the country against the run. The point here is that SMU either cannot defend the run or chooses not to, and either way, that is good news for Louisville.
It has been well documented how talented Louisville’s running back room is. Despite not exactly firing on all cylinders so far this season, Louisville still ranks 37th nationally, averaging 211 yards a game on 38 attempts. If the Cards can simply have their average run game against SMU, that would be another advantage for Louisville. Even without star running back Isaac Brown hitting his stride yet this year, Louisville’s depth at the position can help control the ball and the clock. If the Cards have the ball and can eat up the clock while getting at least 4 yards per carry, that means SMU’s offense is on the bench, and Louisville will have a good chance of winning.
3. Lincoln Kienholz’s growth
The hype around Kienholz was very loud coming into the 2026 season, and for good reason. Louisville had not had a quarterback transfer like this in the Brohm Era. Almost no game experience matched with all of the raw talent in the world meant this dual-threat QB was going to be the real deal.
After two quarters, many fans were wondering if it was all bark and no bite. Then something clicked. In what essentially amounts to one full game for the starters on offense — the second half against Ole Miss and the first half against Villanova — Kienholz has turned things on, and fast. In those four quarters, Kienholz has accounted for seven touchdowns, four with his arm and three with his legs. The offense has scored 63 points and punted just three times on 13 drives.
His maturation in this offense may have taken two quarters against a Top 10 team, but whatever clicked at halftime against Ole Miss carried over into the Villanova game. Now, Louisville needs to see him continue to show why there was so much hype surrounding him coming into the season — and do it for the entirety of four quarters against SMU.
If Kienholz can continue playing at the level we saw over those last four quarters, Louisville’s offense has a chance to be a major problem for the Mustangs.
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