A ridiculous offseason guarantees Louisville will get the Pat Kelsey answer it needs

Through 12 years as a mid-major head coach prior to his arrival at Louisville, Pat Kelsey never won an NCAA Tournament game. He ripped that Band-Aid off this March, dispatching USF in the first round, but the 50-year-old has still never seen the second weekend. Now, after an influx of spending power and a massive offseason, the expectation for Kelsey’s third year at Louisville is to reach the third.

Louisville has not been to the Final Four since 2013, when Rick Pitino led the program to its third national championship. A transfer haul of Jackson Shelstad, Flory Bidunga, Karter Knox, Alvaro Folgueiras, De’Shayne Montgomery, and Gabe Dynes, with newly committed and re-classified five-star Obinna Ekezie Jr., should be good enough to end that drought. The only question now: is Pat Kelsey?

Obinna Ekezie Jr. rounds out a Final Four-caliber roster

After sinking to previously unexplored depths during Kenny Payne’s painful two-year tenure, Kelsey immediately restored Louisville to relevance. He jump-started things with impressive transfer classes, and had five-star freshman Mikel Brown Jr. remained healthy down the stretch last season, the Cardinals may have had a shot to see the Sweet 16.

Even when Brown was healthy, however, Louisville wasn’t without flaw. Kelsey’s Cardinals had the fourth-highest three-point attempt rate in the country, which, with an undersized roster, left them vulnerable to the whims of variance. If their shots fell, they looked like a contender. If they didn’t, then the bottom fell out.

This offseason’s moves seem born out of an understanding that Kelsey must raise the floor, limit entropy, and the best way to do that is to get bigger. Louisville’s front court now includes four players 6-foot-9 or taller, the shortest of which was the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year last season. Shelstad is essentially the only undersized guard on the roster, and he’ll have more than enough defensive protection.

Now, it’s a matter of whether Kelsey can adjust his team’s play style to maximize the new-look roster. Hoisting 40 threes may not be in his best interest this year. This team is built to be elite defensively and to dominate the rim with waves of talented bigs who are capable enough shooters and passers to share the floor together.

If he figures that out and plays to this roster’s strengths, Louisville is positioned for ACC Title contention and a deep run in March. If he can’t, the boosters pouring money into the roster will grow rightfully concerned about whether or not they’re backing the right horse. The good news is, barring injuries, they’ll get a definitive answer.

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