Louisville basketball is set to take on the SMU Mustangs tomorrow afternoon in a crucial ACC showdown. The Cards are in dire need of a win as Louisville is coming off an embarrassing 31-point loss to the Duke Blue Devils earlier this week.
Louisville and SMU enter this game with similar records, as the Cardinals are 14-6 overall and 4-4 in the ACC, while SMU is 15-5 and 4-3 against ACC teams. The Cardinals need to capitalize on any remaining opportunities in their final 11 games, as Louisville is 0-5 against ranked teams and has lost by an average of 16.2 points per game in those five games.
So, with a big-time game coming up tomorrow afternoon in KFC Yum! Center, let’s break down the early odds and what the ESPN Analytics are saying about the Cardinals' chances.
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Louisville basketball opens up as heavy favorites against SMU
In this marquee matchup, Louisville opens up as a reasonable favorite as the line is set at 7.5 points in favor of Pat Kelsey’s Louisville Cardinals, and ESPN Analytics heavily favors the Cardinals, giving them a demanding 83.8 percent chance of winning tomorrow’s matchup.
Obviously, this year's team is much different than last year's, but the Cardinals dominated SMU in the 2024-25 matchup when Reyne Smith splashed 10 3-pointers and finished with 30 points, improving Louisville to a 15-5 record. With the Cardinals' recent struggles and underwhelming start to their ACC schedule, Louisville fans want to see a game like last year when they put on a shooting clinic and won by 25 points.
The Mustangs are led by guard Boopie Miller, who is averaging a team-high 19.4 points and 6.1 assists per game while shooting 48.6 percent from the field and 36 percent from beyond the arc. The Cardinals will have to slow down the Mustangs' guards, as Miller and Jacksonville State transfer Jaron Pierre Jr. contribute nearly 37 points per game to SMU’s 87 points per game.
SMU and Louisville have faced similar opponents so far in their conference schedules, as both have played Duke, Virginia, and Virginia Tech, with the Mustangs also losing to the Blue Devils and Cavaliers while beating the Hokies. However, SMU does have a marquee win on its schedule, as the Mustangs defeated the North Carolina Tar Heels already this season, in dominant fashion by 14 points, after Miller dropped 27 points and 12 assists while shooting 77 percent from the field and 60 percent from downtown.
Louisville opening up as heavy favorites is a good sign for the Cardinals fans that they have a good chance to get back in the win column, but now it becomes clear that if the Cardinals want to win, they must limit Miller and his partner, Pierre Jr.
Louisville and SMU will tip off tomorrow afternoon inside the KFC Yum! Center at 2 p.m. local time.