Louisville football is currently in the mix for the ACC Title after its electrifying win over the Miami Hurricanes. Many experts are now predicting two ACC teams to make the College Football Playoffs after the Cardinals win. If Miami wins out, they aren't a lock to make it to Charlotte, but they would still make it into the playoffs.
With two teams possibly having a path to the College Football Playoff, the Cardinals' path is simple. Win out. Yes, way easier said than done, but this team cannot afford a loss, especially with the teams they have remaining. Louisville has the second-easiest remaining schedule in the Power 4, based solely on opponents' winning percentages.
However, the Cards do play SMU and Clemson in back-to-back weeks, and despite the Tigers' record, that won't be as easy a game as some may think. So, with Louisville fans eyeing a return to Charlotte and the ACC Championship game, how likely is it?
Can Louisville football make a run to the College Football Playoffs?
We are going to go off of ESPN Analytics and what they think. The Cardinals are given a 12 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 9.0 percent chance of winning the ACC. The teams in the mix for the ACC Title include Georgia Tech, Virginia, SMU, Duke, Pitt, and Miami.
The path isn’t easy for Jeff Brohm and Louisville, but it’s there. So, let's break down each team and their schedule, and try and figure out what has to happen for Louisville to make it to the ACC Championship game.
Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech's two hardest games are against North Carolina State and Pitt. The Yellow Jackets are favored to win out, according to ESPN Analytics, and have good odds. They will travel to NC State, but still have a 66.3 percent chance of winning, and their hardest test will be against Pitt at home, with a 65.5 percent chance of winning. The ACC has seen a lot of chaos so far, but ESPN is confident the Yellow Jackets will go undefeated.
If Louisville wants to try to make it to Charlotte, the fans should tune in to these two games and root for massive upsets. The Cards have the head-to-head over Pitt, so the Panthers don't matter right now.
Virginia
Virginia's schedule isn't much more difficult, but they do still have to face Duke. The Cavaliers are given a 70 percent chance or higher to win every game except their matchup with the Blue Devils, where they are expected to be the underdog, according to ESPN Analytics. They will go to Duke, where they have just a 42.3 percent chance of winning, but since Louisville lost to UVA, they would need the Cavaliers to lose twice.
This is where it is a bump in the road. The Cardinals should also keep an eye on the Cavaliers' matchup with Cal on Nov. 1. UVA will travel to Cal, and if the Cardinals want to jump Virginia, these two games mark as Virginia's best chances to lose.
Duke
Duke has a crucial road game next weekend against the Clemson Tigers. Cardinals fans should 100 percent tune in to that game, root for Clemson to eliminate Duke from the race, and then root for the Blue Devils against UVA on Nov. 15. ESPN gives Clemson a 58.4 percent chance of winning this game next weekend. As stated above, Duke has a 57.7 percent chance of upsetting Virginia on its home field. Besides those two games, Duke is a heavy favorite in the remainder of their games.
As for Pitt, SMU, and Miami, if the Cardinals take care of business and win out, then these three teams don't matter, as they would have the head-to-head win for the tiebreaker. Louisville beat Pitt and Miami already and will face SMU on Nov. 22. The Cardinals and Mustangs have a huge chance to be an ACC Title eliminator game, with both teams fighting to stay alive.
ESPN gives SMU a 60.4 percent chance of beating the Cardinals, making it the only game in which ESPN doesn't favor Louisville. The Cardinals are expected to be dominant favorites in the rest of their games, including Clemson, where they have a 61 percent chance of winning. Louisville has a 93 percent chance of beating Boston College, a 75 percent chance of beating Virginia Tech, a 90 percent chance of beating Cal, and a 70 percent chance of beating Kentucky.
So, if Louisville can pull that win over SMU and win out, the Cards sit at 11-1. But according to ESPN Analytics, that isn't a lock they make it to Charlotte. It is hard to imagine they wouldn't, but Georgia Tech's schedule doesn't look too challenging, and the Cavaliers have to lose twice.
If ESPN Analytics were to go 100 percent correct, the Cardinals would be on the outside looking in, with Virginia and Georgia Tech playing in Charlotte. So, Louisville doesn't control its own path, and the fans must root against UVA, Duke, and Georgia Tech, but for now let the season play itself out and control only what you can control.
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