Louisville basketball's win over SMU could silence NCAA Tournament seeding fears

Louisville basketball fans can take a deep breath.
Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Louisville basketball secured a massive first win in the ACC Tournament as the Cardinals defeated SMU 62-58. It wasn’t the prettiest game from the Cardinals, as they shot 23 percent from beyond the arc, but Ryan Conwell hit the one that mattered the most.

Louisville basketball's ACC Tournament run has major NCAA seeding implications

Louisville was down one, but Conwell hit a sidestep three that put Louisville up 60-58. Conwell led the Cardinals with 16 points, and while the Xavier transfer didn’t play his best game of the season, he came up when Louisville needed him the most. With Louisville’s win over SMU, the Cardinals fans should feel much more comfortable with Louisville likely to be a No. 6 seed at worst, but can also still climb if they continue to win.

Louisville basketball fans should feel confident in 6-seed

Last year, the Cardinals were ranked No. 10 in the country heading into Selection Sunday, but they were one of the biggest surprises after landing as a No. 8 seed. Louisville was regarded as extremely underseeded, and some began to fear it might happen again this season. However, after today’s win, Louisville fans should be able to take a deep breath as the Cardinals' win without Mikel Brown Jr. should have them feeling confident in a 6-seed at worst.

Louisville’s average seed according to Bracket Matrix is now 5.88, with the highest being a 5-seed, and just one bracket out of 91 still has them as a 7-seed. The Cardinals have now won three straight, and while Louisville will need to play much cleaner basketball tomorrow, they have a chance to earn another marquee win and begin to make a case for a 5-seed in the NCAA Tournament.

The Cards now have eight Quad 1 wins, which rank 12th in college basketball, and tomorrow will give Louisville a chance to earn its 9th Quad 1 win and rank inside the top five in college basketball for the most Quad 1 wins.

Right now, Joe Lunardi has the Cardinals playing Missouri in the South division, and it certainly feels like Louisville is now a lot closer to a 5-seed than a 7-seed after their thrilling win over the SMU Mustangs.

Related: 3 biggest questions Louisville basketball must answer before the ACC Tournament

For all the latest news and updates on Louisville basketball's 2025-26 season and recruiting, stay tuned.

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