Louisville falling behind for coveted 5-star Tyran Stokes as Kentucky takes control

Tyran Stokes is a name that every Louisville basketball fan must know. The No. 1 recruit in the 2026 class has been trending with the Louisville Cardinals for a long time now, as the consensus 5-star is a Louisville native.

The Cardinals have had their sights set on him for quite some time, as Louisville was the dominant favorite to land his commitment for the majority of 2024 and early 2025. However, a few teams have blossomed and are now giving the Cardinals a run for their money for the No. 1 recruit.

Well, Louisville received crushing news this week as an expert for On3 Sports/Rivals logged a commitment prediction for Stokes, and well, he made it seem like the Cardinals aren't even in the top two.

Experts predicts Tyran Stokes to commit to Kentucky over Louisville

Louisville once had a dominant 66 percent chance of earning Stokes' commitment, but then, after visiting Kentucky and Kansas, Louisville now has just a 32.4 percent chance. The Cardinals are still the favorite to land Stokes per On3 Sports, but according to Jamie Shaw, he is leaning towards the Wildcats.

The Cardinals were extremely high after Stokes was quoting Kelsey for not wanting to duck smoke. Now, they are finding out that the Wildcats are in the lead, and Arkansas is rising and might be passing Louisville as well.

"Over the last couple of months, conversations with sources around the recruitment have started to shift toward a Kentucky lean with Arkansas and John Calipari picking up some momentum. Stokes has not spoken to the media for a few months now, and things remain somewhat quiet around his recruitment.

This one has been interesting to track. Stokes is a native of Louisville, Kentucky; however, he has played his high school basketball, to this point, in California. Continue to track the visits, which campuses he sets foot on, and watch if a commitment date emerges. There could still be some twists and turns in this one
Prediction: Kentucky
Confidence Level: 35%
Biggest Threat: Arkansas, the field"
Jamie Shaw

While Shaw's confidence level is just 35 percent, and maybe Louisville fans shouldn't look too much into this, it is still something to take note of. The Wildcats have been trending in the right direction for quite some time now, and many believe them to be the favorite, and Shaw's prediction proves that.

Louisville has been getting teased like Stokes quoting Kelsey, his mom saying they are Louisville people and don't watch Kentucky games, but many experts are beginning to log their prediction to Mark Pope's Wildcats rather than Kelsey's Cardinals. Louisville earned an official visit back in 2024, and Stokes, being a Louisville native, is what many fans are relying on, but it appears Louisville is entering red alert right now.

If Louisville loses Stokes to Kentucky, it isn't just losing the No. 1 recruit in the nation to their rival, but it would also be a massive blow to the Cardinals because their in-state rival would steal the city's rising phenom right out of their back pocket.

The Cardinals have made it clear that Stokes is their No. 1 guy in the 2026 class, and it will be crucial the next month or two for his recruiting process. Stokes' mom stated she thinks he wants to commit before his senior season, suggesting his decision is sooner than some may think.

While Shaw's prediction should not make Louisville fans freak out or panic, it should raise their eyebrows at the very least.

For all the latest on Louisville basketball's offseason, stay tuned.