If you’re a coach or just a lover of clean, fundamental basketball, you may want to avert your eyes from Louisville’s box score in its 83-79 first-round NCAA Tournament win over USF in Buffalo, New York, on Thursday afternoon.
While Pat Kelsey secured the program’s first tournament win since 2017, Rick Pitino’s final year at Louisville, there is plenty from his team’s win that he would like to clean up. No doubt, the place he will start is protecting the ball.
Without starting point guard Mikel Brown Jr., who was unable to return from a nagging injury that has kept him sidelined since a February 28 loss to Clemson, Louisville finished with 22 turnovers, by far its most this season. Louisville hasn’t turned the ball over 22 times since a win over Florida A&M on December 17, 2022.
Pat Kelsey needs the Cardinals to clean up the turnovers to reach the Sweet 16
After dispatching the American Conference champs on Thursday, Louisville is set to play the winner of Michigan State and North Dakota State, which will tip off at 4:27 p.m. ET on Thursday in Buffalo. Michigan State is favored by 16.5 points over the Bison.
Brown is unlikely to return for the Round of 32 on Saturday, but the good news is that Michigan State doesn’t force turnovers quite at the rate that USF has all season. The Bulls ranked 72nd in Division I with an opponent turnover rate of 16.3 percent. Tom Izzo’s Spartans rank 269th with a 13.3 percent rate.
While Michigan State doesn’t quite force turnovers like Bryan Hodgson’s USF Bulls, which thrive in high-tempo chaos, the Spartans do take advantage of the turnovers that they do create. With Jeremy Fears Jr., who leads the country in assists per game, and Coen Carr, the best in-game dunker in the country, Michigan State thrives in transition and averages 12.9 points off turnovers per game.
As a freshman, Brown actually leads the Cardinals with 3.1 turnovers per game, but he’s the team’s only true point guard. Ryan Conwell has filled that role in Brown’s absence, but he’s best off the ball, and when USF began to press late in the second half to cut into Louisville’s lead, Conwell struggled to get the ball across half-court. He finished with a team-high six turnovers.
Kelsey alleviated a huge amount of pressure by notching his first tournament win, but to go on a long run, he’ll need his point guard back after USF exposed just how badly they miss him in the second half.