Louisville basketball’s path to the Final Four is set, and the Cardinals fans are quickly realizing how loaded the East region is. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, Louisville is in maybe the best region of the NCAA Tournament, which means the Cardinals fans' dreams of snapping a 12-year drought without a Final Four appearance are not looking likely.
5 immediate observations from Louisville basketball's 2026 NCAA Tournament draw
The NCAA Tournament odds were recently released, and the Cardinals opened as a 6.5-point favorite, but since then, the line has already shifted. The Cardinals vs. the Bulls is a game many are picking as their first-round upset, and the oddsmakers appear to be listening to the outside noise.
Louisville-USF spread is shifting ahead of NCAA Tournament showdown
The Cardinals are now 5.5-point favorites as of Monday, March 16. Louisville still has no answer on if Mikel Brown Jr. is playing, as this morning, Kelsey stated he is making “great progress”, but didn’t give a definitive status update on the 5-star freshman.
Pat Kelsey gives latest injury update on Mikel Brown Jr. before the NCAA Tournament
Louisville is 7-5 when Brown hasn’t played this season, including 1-1 in the ACC Tournament, where Louisville lost to Miami in the quarterfinals. The Cards have had some impressive wins with him out, including Louisville’s regular-season win over Miami, which snapped a 14-game losing streak on the road against a ranked opponent, and then they beat SMU in a gritty ACC Tournament second-round matchup.
The line already changing in the wrong direction raises Cardinals fans' eyebrows, especially with many experts picking against Louisville. Bruce Pearl and Jay Bilas are two who have already shared their picks, and they made it clear that with Brown’s injury in question, they are picking USF to win.
ESPN Analytics favors Louisville with an 81 percent chance of winning, but with experts picking USF and now the line slowly changing already, the Cards are more and more on upset alert entering Thursday’s showdown.
For all the latest news and updates on Louisville basketball's 2025-26 season and recruiting, stay tuned.