Louisville basketball is in its final stretch of the regular season, with just five games remaining. Entering the 2025-26 season, many knew these last five games would be crucial for the Cardinals' March Madness seed and the ACC standings.
Louisville sits 19-7 on the season and 8-5 in conference games as the Cardinals just dropped one last night to SMU on the road in Dallas. Louisville snapped its five-game win streak after SMU went on to win 95-85, raising the stakes even higher for these final five games.
When fans look at the final five games, they are going to circle North Carolina, Clemson, and Miami; however, last night it became clear that the Cardinals' game with the Tar Heels has gotten much easier since Caleb Wilson's injury.
Related: Louisville basketball’s chances for huge road win just rose after Caleb Wilson update
Louisville basketball has a major opportunity vs. North Carolina
North Carolina is ranked No. 16 in the nation, and before last week, this was probably the Cardinals' biggest remaining game on their schedule. The Tar Heels found a way to scrap out a gritty win over Duke and hand the Blue Devils their first ACC loss at home on a buzzer-beater 3-pointer from Seth Trimble.
UNC rose to No. 11 in the AP Poll, but then lost to Miami. After that game, they learned their true freshman, Caleb Wilson, had suffered a fractured left hand. The university announced he will be out “indefinitely”, and last night the Tar Heels got exposed to how important he is to their team.
North Carolina went on the road to take on the North Carolina State Wolfpack, and the Tar Heels got embarrassed, losing 82-58. Now, the Tar Heels were without their second-leading scorer, Henri Veesaar, who averages 16.4 points per game, but it was made clear how much this team relies on Wilson.
Louisville dominated NC State as Mikel Brown Jr. scored an ACC freshman record 45 points and led the Cardinals to beat the Wolfpack by 41. And now that same team Louisville just beat by 41 went on to dominate the Tar Heels and win by 24.
Last night, the Wolfpack gave Pat Kelsey the blueprint on how to dominate North Carolina if Wilson remains out for the Cardinals and Tar Heels showdown on Feb. 23. North Carolina State shot 48 percent from the field and 45 percent from downtown, and had five players score in double figures, including four starters.
Without Wilson, Louisville fans should feel way more confident about this game, and while yes, the Cardinals did just lose by 10 to SMU on the road, this Cardinals team should handle business on the road in Chapel Hill against a Wilson-less North Carolina team.
Wilson is a projected top-five pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, averaging 19.8 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.4 blocks while shooting 57%.8 percent from the field. Wilson set North Carolina’s freshman record by scoring in double digits every game he played in this season, including scoring 20 points or more in 17 of the 24 games.
The Tar Heels and the Cardinals are currently tied in the ACC standings with an 8-5 record, making this matchup have massive implications for the ACC standings and the Cards NCAA Tournament seed. Louisville needs to go on a run here in these final five games, and with likely Wilson out, it certainly feels like this is a game Louisville has a good chance to win.
For all the latest news and updates on Louisville basketball's 2025-26 season and recruiting, stay tuned.