Louisville football will travel to Pittsburgh this weekend for the Cardinals' first ACC game of the 2025 season. While last year's game was an absolute blowout, with the Cards winning 37-9, the feeling for this game is much different.
The Cardinals are now favored by 4.5 points on the road at Acrisure Stadium, and a big reason is the uncertainty of Pitt's star running back Desmond Reid. ESPN's Football Power Index gives the Cardinals the better chance of winning as they give Louisville a 57 percent chance of winning Saturday, while Pitt just has a 43 percent chance.
Well, the news gets even better for Louisville and their fans if they are into odds, predictions, and computer calculations, as Bill Connelly's SP+ computer model predicts Louisville to beat the Panthers.
Louisville picked to take down Pitt in a ACC barn burner
Many college football fans either love or hate computer models, and their opinion usually depends on whether their team is selected to win or not. However, Connelly's model is one of the more well-known ones, and in his model, Louisville is favored with a 59 percent chance of winning.
The model averages Louisville to beat Pitt by 3.6 points, and a projected rounded score of 30-27. Cardinals fans are looking at this week's model with a big smile, as a win over Pitt would be their first significant win of the 2025 season and hopefully put them in the AP Poll's top 25.
If Louisville wants to make a run towards the ACC Championship game, this Pitt showdown is a must-win then. Louisville can't afford a Week 5 loss to their first Power 4 opponent, and ACC team. The Cardinals have a tough road ahead with Miami, SMU and Clemson despite some of those teams falling early in the season.
With the analytics and models on Louisville's side, that is a good sign that the Cardinals should go out and secure their first ACC win, getting off to a hot start.
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For all the latest on Louisville football's recruiting and 2025 season, stay tuned.