The Louisville Cardinals will take on the SMU Mustangs on Saturday in a crucial ACC matchup that could determine where the Cardinals' season could end up in March.
Louisville basketball has gone 5-5 over its last 10 games and has struggled without its star freshman, MIkel Brown Jr. When Brown returned against Virginia Tech, things seemed to be back on track for the Cardinals. However, after taking a 31-point loss to Duke, things seem to be quite dour in the Ville.
Louisville has the talent and coaching to be one of the best teams in the country, but has struggled against good competition this year and hasn't beaten a team ranked in the current top 25. Pat Kelsey will need to start getting some quality wins in the ACC throughout the rest of the season, or the Cardinals' seeding for the NCAA tournament could drop drastically.
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Louisville basketball enters a must-win game against SMU
The Cardinals need to see consistent winning play in the ACC until March to improve their resume, and beating SMU, which ranks in the top 35 in the net and KenPom rankings, would be a good start for Louisville.
While SMU isn’t ranked in the AP Top-25 at the moment, they were earlier this season and are trending toward a similar seed as the Cardinals in the NCAA Tournament. Joe Lunardi has SMU as an 8-seed, while the Cardinals are a 6-seed. So, with Louisville’s struggles this year against quality opponents, tomorrow presents a massive opportunity for the Cardinals to prove they are still a top-25 team.
SMU has quality wins over North Carolina and Texas A&M this season and is not a team Louisville can walk over, as they are led by Boopie Miller, who averages 19.4 points per game. If Louisville wants to win this game, it will need to play physical basketball and lean on its two guards, Ryan Conwell and Mikel Brown Jr.
It is no secret that, entering the season, the Cardinals and their fans had bigger dreams than being a six- or seven-seed. Louisville had the sixth-highest odds to win the NCAA Title and was a Final Four contender, so if Louisville wants a higher seed in March and to start competing consistently in the ACC, it needs to start against SMU on Saturday.
This game has major implications for the Cardinals' season, as if Louisville were to lose tomorrow’s matchup, they would fall to 14-7 on the season and 4-5 in their conference schedule. With Louisville’s 0-5 record against ranked teams, the Cardinals have to find a way to win tomorrow to earn a quad-one victory, as they cannot afford to lose another game to a KenPom top-40 team.
Louisville fans are going to learn a lot about their Cardinals tomorrow afternoon. A win, and they will gain some hope that this team can rattle off a run late in the regular season and, hopefully, in the ACC Tournament. However, a loss, and Cardinals fans will begin to accept more and more that this is a first- or second-round exit team in the NCAA Tournament.
Louisville has a lot to play for on Saturday, even if SMU is currently unranked. Cardinals fans will have to wait until Saturday to see if Louisville has what it takes to beat SMU, but everything is on the line, and fans will know what kind of team this really is at the end of the Cardinals' matchup against the Mustangs.
For all the latest on Louisville basketball's 2025-26 season and recruiting, stay tuned.