History shows Jordan Nwora’s draft prospects could hinge on one thing

With a decision looming, Louisville basketball’s Jordan Nwora will need an NBA Combine invite if he has any chance of improving his draft stock and being drafted.

It’s been a little over three weeks since Jordan Nwora announced his intention to put his Louisville basketball career on hold and declare for the 2019 NBA Draft.

This news came on the heels of a breakout season for the sophomore wing, who upped his scoring from 5.7 points per game as a freshman to over 17 as a sophomore, winning the ACC’s Most Improved Player of the Year award in the process. 

While Nwora’s draft stock ranges from anywhere between late first/early second round to undrafted, it’s hard to blame him for testing the waters and seeking feedback from the world’s best talent evaluators.

Now with a little over a month before a decision has to made on whether to stay in the draft pool or return back for his junior season, one thing could be the deciding factor on whether Nwora will be drafted in the 2019 NBA Draft.

That one thing is an invitation to the 2019 NBA Combine.

Last year we shared the statistics on NBA Combine invites leading to higher chances of being drafted for Ray Spalding and Deng Adel, two players who decided to leave early for the draft after breakout seasons. Both needed an NBA Combine invitation to be drafted, but only one received that, and subsequently went on to be drafted 56th overall in the 2018 NBA Draft, while the other spent time in the G-League before being called up on a Two-Way contract.

Here’s what I wrote 11 months ago:

"Last season 67 players were invited to the combine, 46 of those players were underclassmen. Remember a record number of underclassmen declared last season (185 to be exact) meaning that the majority did not receive invites.Of the 46 underclassmen, 9 decided to return to college for their next season of eligibility, leaving 37 players in the draft pool. Of that group, 18 would go on to be first round picks. 11 would be 2nd round picks, and 8 would go undrafted. Of the 8 undrafted players, four of them signed two-way deals in which they split time between the NBA and the G-League. Two of them signed to play overseas, including Kentucky guard Isaiah Briscoe, while the other two signed affiliate deals to play with G-League team’s after being cut in training camp by an NBA team."

The stats are no different this year than they were last year.

Last year 69 players were invited to the combine, 56 were underclassmen. This year over 135 players have declared for the NBA Draft which is actually less than last year’s 185.

Of 69 players invited to the combine, 26 were drafted in the first round, while 23 were drafted in the second round, including Louisville’s Ray Spalding. Nine went on to go undrafted, with two players signing guaranteed contracts and playing significant minutes, four signing Two-Way contracts and bouncing back and forth between the NBA and G-League, three players signed deals to go to training camp but were released before the regular season started, and 10 ended up returning to school for their next season of eligibility.

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Of the 60 players selected that were non-foreign players, only four were selected after not attending or being invited to the combine. DeAndre Ayton and Robert Williams III chose not to attend and were selected first and 27th overall, while Vince Edwards and Thomas Welsh were both late second round picks who signed Two-Way contracts with their respective teams, but weren’t underclassmen like Nwora.

So why does that make the NBA Combine so important to Jordan Nwora (and of course Steven Enoch and V.J. King)?

If you go back and look at everything I just broke down you’ll quickly realize, zero underclassmen who weren’t invited to the NBA combine were selected in the 2018 NBA Draft.

Given the chance to go to the Combine, and of course depending on his performance, NBA scouts and General Managers will likely fall in love with the game of Jordan Nwora, or at least parts of it.

All season long Louisville fans were given the opportunity to see one of the nation’s best shooters, and one of the most underrated athletes go to work. His hot touch from three, shooting at 38%, and ability to get buckets from just about anywhere, not to mention his willingness to put anyone and everyone on a poster, made him one of the most fun players Louisville’s had in years.

There’s also parts of his game that are a huge work in progress and why he’s listed on most draft boards in the back of the second round. His tendency to be casual and lethargic defensively as well as his lack of quickness allowed just about every wing and even some big men to get around him and score at will, while poor shot selection and carelessness with the ball left Louisville in some tough spots in plenty of games.

Much like most underdeveloped underclassman, there’s a lot of potential that gives you hope that he could be dangerous at the next level. But there’s also a lot that makes you weary about his ability to not be a liability on the floor as a young player.

Jordan Nwora has not ruled out returning to school, which ultimately would be the best option at this point with plenty of his game needing work and the potential to play for a Final Four caliber team and the ability to compete for ACC Player of the Year award. However, if he is one of the 60-70 players who receive a combine invite, it could seal him leaving Louisville early.

We should know within the next 14 days or so whether or not Nwora receives the Combine invite with the 2019 NBA Combine slated to kick off on May 14th.

Could Jordan Nwora be off to the NBA? We won’t officially know until May 29th, when players have to make their final decision to stay or go, but my guess is we’ll have a pretty good indication by May 19th when the five-day event comes to a close.