Louisville basketball is taking on the USF Bulls in the first round of the NCAA Tournament this afternoon. The Cardinals are playing without their star guard Mikel Brown Jr., as the 5-star freshman was ruled out of the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament with the lingering back injury that has now forced him to sit on the sideline for 13 games this season.
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Louisville and USF are expected to be a 3-point battle with both teams shooting around 30 3’s per game. With Brown on the sideline and Louisville looking to advance to the round of 32, the Cards will need some role players like Isaac McKneely and Khani Rooths to step up and have big-time games in the Big Dance.
The Cardinals will seek their first NCAA Tournament win since 2017 and try to reach the Sweet Sixteen for the first time since 2015. Louisville is trending as the matchup many analysts and experts are predicting to be an upset in the first round, but what do the oddsmakers say just hours before tipoff?
Louisville basketball vs USF odds
The Cardinals were originally 6.5-point favorites when Vegas first released the opening line, but since Selection Sunday, that line has dropped to 5.5, and now, with the news of Mikel Brown Jr. out, it is at 4.5 points in favor of the Cardinals, according to FanDuel. ESPN Analytics has been high on the Cardinals all year, and entering the first-round showdown, they remain high on Louisville, giving the Cards a dominant 80.9 percent chance of beating USF and moving on to the round of 32.
Spread: Louisville -4.5
Moneyline: Louisville -200, USF +164
Over/Under:Â 163.5
Prediction
While many are picking against Louisville in this game, the common theme of the season is Kelsey and the Cardinals taking care of business against the teams they are more talented than. Louisville has struggled this season against ranked and elite teams, but when they play teams they are supposed to beat, they tend to walk away with a win.
Brown will miss his fifth straight game, and it's a gut-wrenching blow to not have him available this afternoon. There is no sugarcoating that. However, this team has won and played without him for 12 games now, and has some impressive wins with Brown off the floor, including maybe its best win of the season on the road against Miami to conclude the regular season. So, this team knows how to win without Brown, and they have done it recently.
Players like Ryan Conwell and Adrian Wooley will have to step up and not just create open shots and hit a couple of 3’s, but with USF's impressive rim protection, they will need an effective mid-range game so they can find ways to score at the cup. The ACC has already seen two teams lose in the First Four games, and with Louisville as an early tip-off, the Cardinals will have a chance to earn the conference's first win.
Expect the veteran players in J’Vonne Hadley and Conwell to step up once again and send Louisville to the round of 32. This team will find a way to survive and advance, earn its first win in the Big Dance since 2017, and move on to the round of 32.
Louisville 83 USF 78
Related: Louisville could run into a familiar problem vs. USF without Pat Kelsey's least favorite shot
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