Despite the numbers that clearly spell out many reasons why the Cardinals will win in this afternoon's first round game against South Florida, there are many that are still picking the Bulls as a popular choice to disrupt the bracket with an upset.
Don't say we didn't warn you.
11-seed South Florida is the most popular public underdog among Thursday's 16 #MarchMadness games at @BetMGM.
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) March 19, 2026
🏀USF has the most wagers and total $$ wagered of any underdog, BOTH to win outright and cover against No. 6 Louisville.
➡️78% of bets, 72% of 💰 on USF +4.5 (opened…
There's always going to be a popular upset pick in the brackets and this year it just happens to be South Florida. No one should be surprised by this. The best chance for an upset is always going to happen with the 5, 6 or 7 seeds. Add that with the fact that the Bulls rolled through in the American Conference, generally thought to be among the upper crust of the mid-majors and the Cardinals will be without Mikel Brown Jr. for at least the next two games.
Louisville is built to win in the tournament, even without Mikel Brown Jr.
But, as previously pointed out, the Cardinals have been without Brown for 12 games this season, and they've managed to figure out a solid lineup when the star freshman isn't available. Louisville was able to win three of its final four games without Brown and that included wins over two tournament teams — Miami (on the road no less) and SMU in the ACC conference tournament.
The Cardinals' success against teams outside the top 40 in KenPom is well documented and once you get past that fact, there's the simple matter of mental toughness. Through the schedule that Pat Kelsey put together this season and the battles within the ACC, Louisville is built for this and senior Issac McKneely hammered that point home earlier this week:
"Coach Kelsey and everybody scheduled a tough schedule all season long to prepare us for this moment," McKneely said. "We’ve been working really hard. Since June 5th, when we walked on campus, we’ve been working really, really hard for this moment. So we’re prepared, we’re ready to go, and can’t wait to play."
