The Cardinals have not had the start to the season that many envisioned. Having three losses in just six weeks is disappointing, to say the least. Even worse, they are just 2-2 in the ACC, and the playoff hopes that existed before the season started are all but gone.
3 bold predictions for Louisville vs. Syracuse in Week 7
At just the halfway point of the season, Louisville’s two disappointing losses have essentially ended the postseason dreams that Cards fans had just a month ago. After the big win against SMU, Coach Brohm’s team was in a perfect position to make a run at the ACC title. However, just as they have in each of his previous three seasons at Louisville, the Cardinals have suffered upset losses that have prevented them from becoming an elite team.
The goal of reaching nine wins for the fourth consecutive year under Brohm is still possible, but it will be difficult, as the Cards would need to win out for the rest of the season. They will likely be favored in most of their remaining games, but they still have three tough matchups ahead: at UNC, at home against Pitt, and the rivalry game against No. 15 Kentucky.
If Louisville wants to finish the season stronger than it started, here are three questions that could make or break the rest of the year.
1. Can they fix their pass defense?
It is no secret that Louisville has struggled to defend the pass this season. The Cardinals currently rank 122nd out of 138 FBS schools, allowing 257 passing yards per game. They also give up 7.6 yards per attempt, which ranks 94th nationally.
Opponents aren't just dink-and-dunking their way down the field against this defense, either. They are consistently picking up yards in bunches. When it comes to allowing explosive passing plays, Louisville ranks 134th nationally in plays of 30-plus yards with 13, 123rd in plays of 40-plus yards with six, and 130th in plays of 50-plus yards with four. Even worse, the Cardinals rank dead last, 138th, in plays of 60-plus yards, having allowed four this season.
To make matters worse, Louisville has recorded just 12 sacks through its first six games. The inability to consistently pressure opposing quarterbacks has only made life more difficult for the secondary. If Louisville wants to win more games the rest of the season, it must improve its pass defense. That could start with generating more pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but regardless of how they do it, limiting explosive passing plays needs to be priority No. 1 for this defense moving forward.
2. Can they maintain their good turnover margin?
The Louisville offense committed zero turnovers through the first three games of the season. The Cardinals have also gone without a turnover in four of their six games. Against NC State, in a rainy and difficult game, Louisville lost three fumbles. Its only other turnover came on a tipped pass that resulted in Lincoln Kienholz’s lone interception of the season.
This level of ball security will be difficult to sustain, but it has been a strength for Louisville so far. It has also been a strength historically under Brohm. In his three-plus seasons as Louisville’s head coach, the Cardinals have a 20-1 record when winning the turnover battle. Their only loss came in Week 1 against Ole Miss, when they won the turnover battle 1-0 but still lost on a last-second field goal. In their three losses this season, the Cardinals have a minus-1 turnover margin. In their wins, they are plus-5.
Louisville currently has a turnover margin of plus-0.83 per game, having forced nine turnovers while giving the ball away just four times all season. That is good enough to rank 19th nationally in turnover margin. As you can see, that success hasn't necessarily come from forcing an abundance of turnovers. Instead, the Cardinals have done an excellent job of taking care of the football.
Unlike teams that rely on lucky bounces or opponents' mistakes to generate turnovers, ball security is something Louisville can largely control. If the Cardinals can maintain that discipline on offense, they will put themselves in a good position to win more games down the stretch.
3. Can they rely on their run game to allow Lincoln Kienholz to continue developing?
It may have taken Cards fans longer than they wanted for Isaac Brown to get going, but he has finally arrived this season. After looking like a different player during the first month of the season, Brown has started to resemble the explosive running back Louisville fans have come to expect. Through the team's first four games, he had just 197 yards on 48 carries, averaging 4.1 yards per carry. However, in his last two games, he has rushed for 360 yards on just 26 carries, averaging an incredible 13.8 yards per carry while breaking off touchdown runs of 70 and 97 yards. That production has raised his season average to 7.5 yards per carry, much closer to what Louisville fans have come to expect from him.
Even with Brown's slow start, the running game has been a highlight of the Louisville offense. The addition of dual-threat quarterback Lincoln Kienholz, along with Keyjuan Brown and Marquise Davis, has helped make this rushing attack one of the best in the country. The Cardinals currently rank 11th nationally with 231.67 rushing yards per game and average 6.32 yards per carry as a team. That kind of production is a quarterback's best friend.
It is also part of the reason Kienholz has been able to ease into his role and contribute to the team's success. His ceiling has yet to be reached, but his floor appears to be relatively high based on how he has performed to this point. With a 69.5% completion rate, 10 yards per completion, and a 9:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, Cards fans can't ask for much more from him. Even in Louisville's losses, Kienholz has not been the reason the team has come up short.
If the running game can continue carrying this offense and producing at such a high level, there is no reason for Brohm to move away from it. Leaning on the ground game will allow Louisville to keep its offense productive while giving Kienholz more time to get comfortable in the system and continue developing as the season progresses.
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