The moment all college basketball fans have waited for is finally here: the first round of the NCAA tournament. The day is sure to be filled with excitement, potential buzzer beaters, and devastating upsets. Louisville basketball hopes to avoid experiencing the last of these three items, as they have been a trendy upset pick since the NCAA tournament field was announced on Sunday. Throw in the recent news that Mikel Brown Jr. will not be available for the Cardinals and it’s easy to start thinking Louisville could be on upset alert.
Louisville could run into a familiar problem vs. USF without Pat Kelsey's least favorite shot
Yes, it seems pretty dim for the Louisville Cardinals entering the NCAA tournament, but it doesn’t have to be. If we look back at the Cardinals’ performances against similarly rated teams using the KenPom computer ratings system, a promising trend emerges that weighs heavily in Louisville’s favor. This trend is a bright spot and should give Cards fans confidence as Louisville prepares to take on the USF Bulls.
One KenPom trend should calm Louisville fans ahead of USF showdown
Louisville has its strengths and weaknesses in matchups against other teams. The Cardinals have consistently fallen short this season against high-performing squads (typically top-30 rated in KenPom), a fact that has frustrated Cards fans time and time again. However, Louisville has also consistently taken care of business against teams ranked 40 or lower in the KenPom rankings, and good news for Louisville fans is that USF currently sits at a 48 rating, which falls right into the latter category.
Sure, there are matchups where Louisville won, and Brown Jr. was a major contributor to the offense; Cincinnati (KenPom Rating: 44) and Baylor (KenPom Rating: 49) come to mind as games in which Brown Jr. scored 20+ points. However, Pat Kelsey and the Cardinals have shown that they can step up and produce the results needed without their star point guard.
The matchups that fit this category are the two wins against the SMU Mustangs (at home and in the ACC tournament), both of which featured a sidelined Brown. The Cardinals prevailed in both matchups and proved that although Brown Jr. is a major piece to the offense, he is not the only contributor they have.
Another example of the Cardinals overcoming a disappointing Brown Jr. performance came in Indianapolis, when they faced the Indiana Hoosiers (KenPom Rating 45). Brown scored in the single digits and struggled to find his footing most of the game. However, Louisville’s offensive firepower was strong enough that Brown's on-court absence was not an issue.
The talk this week about the Cardinals being on upset alert could very well come to fruition. This is March, and anything can happen. However, this season shows that in similar situations, the Cardinals have stepped up and done what was needed to come away with the victory. It will be imperative for Kelsey and the company to navigate the big stage and play with the confidence we have seen during the wins mentioned above.
Related: 3 things Louisville basketball fans need to know about the USF Bulls
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